{"capped_by_plan":false,"count":2,"disclaimer":"Educational seasonal pattern + ML research, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not indicative of future results.","enrichment_capped":false,"evaluated_count":2,"evidence_failures":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-19T23:09:11","lookback":{"min_winning_years":9,"years":10},"market_failures":[],"markets_scanned":["2"],"ml_remaining_today":22,"opportunities":[{"alignment":{"note":"ML confirms the seasonal edge (both above 60%).","verdict":"aligned"},"bias":"bullish","direction":"long","disclaimer":"Educational seasonal pattern + ML research, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not indicative of future results.","edge_basis":"win_rate 0.90 x sharpe 0.9 x ml_win_prob 0.72 x 10y history","edge_score":66,"extend_research":{"blind_to":["fundamentals","valuation","news","catalysts","macro/rates","analyst views","upcoming earnings","live price"],"loop_back":"If your findings change the picture, call analyze_symbol again with a tighter window, compare_opportunities to rank peers, or get_pick_track_record for the live forward-tested record.","suggested_checks":["Does an earnings report fall inside the 2026-10-19 to 2026-12-01 window? TradeWave does not track earnings - check your own calendar.","Any scheduled catalyst (product, FDA, guidance, macro print) during the hold?","Recent news or price action that would invalidate a long bias on MSFT?","Is the sector / macro backdrop consistent with a long here?","What do current fundamentals or valuation say versus this purely seasonal read?"],"synthesis_rule":"Keep explicit which facts are TradeWave's (this card) versus your own research. Do NOT invent a catalyst to justify the seasonal edge; if there is none, the edge stands on the statistics alone.","tradewave_provides":"A seasonal + 62-feature-ML statistical edge and the timing for MSFT (long)."},"headline":"MSFT long - enter ~Oct 19, hold 44d. Won 9/10 years, avg +5.2%, Sharpe 0.9.","market":{"id":"2","name":"S&P 500 STOCKS"},"ml":{"ml_score":69.1,"ml_win_prob":0.7157,"pred_mfe_pct":7.8659,"pred_return_pct":3.0099},"next_step":{"copy_text":"BUY MSFT market, day order; plan exit ~2026-12-01 (44d seasonal hold).","framing":"TradeWave gives the edge and the timing; you place the trade at your own broker.","headline":"To act on this, here is a ready-to-place ticket:","order_ticket":{"note":"Seasonal hold ~44 calendar days. Size to your own risk.","side":"BUY","suggested_entry_date":"2026-10-19","suggested_exit_date":"2026-12-01","symbol":"MSFT","time_in_force":"DAY","type":"MARKET"},"set_reminder":{"fire_on":"2026-10-18","message":"MSFT seasonal window opens tomorrow.","type":"seasonal_entry"}},"rank":1,"receipts":{"as_of":"2026-10-19","avg_return_pct":5.15,"best_year":{"return_pct":13.27,"year":"2023"},"curve_summary":{"change_pts":13.1,"peak_day":40,"shape":"strengthens into the exit; seasonal index rising +13 pts over the hold","trend":"rising","trough_day":1},"historical_win_rate":0.9,"losses":1,"median_return_pct":5.44,"per_year":[{"result":"win","return_pct":3.6,"year":"2016"},{"result":"win","return_pct":8.69,"year":"2017"},{"result":"win","return_pct":3.6,"year":"2018"},{"result":"win","return_pct":8.4,"year":"2019"},{"result":"win","return_pct":1.19,"year":"2020"},{"result":"win","return_pct":7.28,"year":"2021"},{"result":"win","return_pct":8.0,"year":"2022"},{"result":"win","return_pct":13.27,"year":"2023"},{"result":"win","return_pct":3.12,"year":"2024"},{"result":"loss","return_pct":-5.64,"year":"2025"}],"source":"TradeWave seasonal model, 10y lookback","wins":9,"worst_year":{"return_pct":-5.64,"year":"2025"},"years_tested":10},"setup":{"entry_date":"2026-10-19","entry_window":"2026-10-16 to 2026-10-22","exit_date":"2026-12-01","hold_days":44,"timing":{"days_to_entry":0,"status":"window opens today"}},"stats":{"annualized_return_pct":5.03,"avg_return_pct":5.15,"cumulative_return_pct":63.4,"historical_win_rate":0.9,"median_return_pct":5.44,"sharpe_ratio":0.9,"sharpe_ratio_mfe":2.28,"std_dev_pct":5.19,"years":"10","years_tested":10},"symbol":"MSFT","tier_notes":"ML score shown.","verdict":"Strong, consistent seasonal long.","wave_viewer":{"label":"Open and stress-test this exact pattern in TradeWave","opens":"Wave Viewer","pattern":{"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-10-19","hold_days":44,"market_id":"2","symbol":"MSFT","years":"10"},"url":"https://tradewave.ai/app/?o=MnxNU0ZUfDIwMjYtMTAtMTl8NDR8MTA&view=evidence&direction=long","value":"Inspect individual years, change the lookback or PE cycle, adjust the window, compare patterns, and save or share the setup."}},{"alignment":{"note":"Seasonal edge only - no ML score on this setup to cross-check.","verdict":"seasonal_only"},"bias":"bullish","direction":"long","disclaimer":"Educational seasonal pattern + ML research, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not indicative of future results.","edge_basis":"win_rate 0.90 x sharpe 0.7 x 10y history","edge_score":68,"extend_research":{"blind_to":["fundamentals","valuation","news","catalysts","macro/rates","analyst views","upcoming earnings","live price"],"loop_back":"If your findings change the picture, call analyze_symbol again with a tighter window, compare_opportunities to rank peers, or get_pick_track_record for the live forward-tested record.","suggested_checks":["Does an earnings report fall inside the 2026-10-19 to 2027-07-15 window? TradeWave does not track earnings - check your own calendar.","Any scheduled catalyst (product, FDA, guidance, macro print) during the hold?","Recent news or price action that would invalidate a long bias on AMZN?","Is the sector / macro backdrop consistent with a long here?","What do current fundamentals or valuation say versus this purely seasonal read?"],"synthesis_rule":"Keep explicit which facts are TradeWave's (this card) versus your own research. Do NOT invent a catalyst to justify the seasonal edge; if there is none, the edge stands on the statistics alone.","tradewave_provides":"A seasonal + 62-feature-ML statistical edge and the timing for AMZN (long)."},"headline":"AMZN long - enter ~Oct 19, hold 270d. Won 9/10 years, avg +27.4%, Sharpe 0.7.","market":{"id":"2","name":"S&P 500 STOCKS"},"ml":null,"next_step":{"copy_text":"BUY AMZN market, day order; plan exit ~2027-07-15 (270d seasonal hold).","framing":"TradeWave gives the edge and the timing; you place the trade at your own broker.","headline":"To act on this, here is a ready-to-place ticket:","order_ticket":{"note":"Seasonal hold ~270 calendar days. Size to your own risk.","side":"BUY","suggested_entry_date":"2026-10-19","suggested_exit_date":"2027-07-15","symbol":"AMZN","time_in_force":"DAY","type":"MARKET"},"set_reminder":{"fire_on":"2026-10-18","message":"AMZN seasonal window opens tomorrow.","type":"seasonal_entry"}},"rank":2,"receipts":{"as_of":"2026-10-19","avg_return_pct":27.41,"best_year":{"return_pct":84.72,"year":"2017"},"curve_summary":{"change_pts":42.4,"peak_day":268,"shape":"strengthens into the exit; seasonal index rising +42 pts over the hold","trend":"rising","trough_day":12},"historical_win_rate":0.9,"losses":1,"median_return_pct":18.75,"per_year":[{"result":"win","return_pct":23.52,"year":"2016"},{"result":"win","return_pct":84.72,"year":"2017"},{"result":"win","return_pct":14.57,"year":"2018"},{"result":"win","return_pct":68.5,"year":"2019"},{"result":"win","return_pct":13.22,"year":"2020"},{"result":"loss","return_pct":-34.06,"year":"2021"},{"result":"win","return_pct":16.07,"year":"2022"},{"result":"win","return_pct":50.09,"year":"2023"},{"result":"win","return_pct":19.72,"year":"2024"},{"result":"win","return_pct":17.78,"year":"2025"}],"source":"TradeWave seasonal model, 10y lookback","wins":9,"worst_year":{"return_pct":-34.06,"year":"2021"},"years_tested":10},"setup":{"entry_date":"2026-10-19","entry_window":"2026-10-16 to 2026-10-22","exit_date":"2027-07-15","hold_days":270,"timing":{"days_to_entry":0,"status":"window opens today"}},"stats":{"annualized_return_pct":23.23,"avg_return_pct":27.41,"cumulative_return_pct":707.8,"historical_win_rate":0.9,"median_return_pct":18.75,"sharpe_ratio":0.74,"sharpe_ratio_mfe":1.18,"std_dev_pct":33.21,"years":"10","years_tested":10},"symbol":"AMZN","tier_notes":"ML score is currently unavailable for this setup. No ML allowance was charged for an undelivered score.","verdict":"Strong, consistent seasonal long.","wave_viewer":{"label":"Open and stress-test this exact pattern in TradeWave","opens":"Wave Viewer","pattern":{"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-10-19","hold_days":270,"market_id":"2","symbol":"AMZN","years":"10"},"url":"https://tradewave.ai/app/?o=MnxBTVpOfDIwMjYtMTAtMTl8MjcwfDEw&view=evidence&direction=long","value":"Inspect individual years, change the lookback or PE cycle, adjust the window, compare patterns, and save or share the setup."}}],"rank_by":"sharpe","shown_of_evaluated":"2 of 2","summary":"Evaluated 2 candidates - showing 2 ranked seasonal setups, 2 with a high-conviction seasonal pattern.","view":"full","window":"now"}