{"as_of":"2026-07-21","card":{"alignment":{"note":"ML confirms the seasonal edge (both above 60%).","verdict":"aligned"},"bias":"bullish","direction":"long","disclaimer":"Educational seasonal pattern + ML research, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not indicative of future results.","edge_basis":"win_rate 1.00 x sharpe 3.4 x ml_win_prob 0.82 x 11y history","edge_score":94,"extend_research":{"blind_to":["fundamentals","valuation","news","catalysts","macro/rates","analyst views","upcoming earnings","live price"],"loop_back":"If your findings change the picture, call analyze_symbol again with a tighter window, compare_opportunities to rank peers, or get_pick_track_record for the live forward-tested record.","suggested_checks":["Does an earnings report fall inside the 2026-06-25 to 2026-07-19 window? TradeWave does not track earnings - check your own calendar.","Any scheduled catalyst (product, FDA, guidance, macro print) during the hold?","Recent news or price action that would invalidate a long bias on AAPL?","Is the sector / macro backdrop consistent with a long here?","What do current fundamentals or valuation say versus this purely seasonal read?"],"synthesis_rule":"Keep explicit which facts are TradeWave's (this card) versus your own research. Do NOT invent a catalyst to justify the seasonal edge; if there is none, the edge stands on the statistics alone.","tradewave_provides":"A seasonal + 62-feature-ML statistical edge and the timing for AAPL (long)."},"headline":"AAPL long - enter ~Jun 25, hold 24d. Won 11/11 years, avg +6.0%, Sharpe 3.4.","market":{"id":"2","name":"S&P 500 STOCKS"},"ml":{"ml_score":90.2,"ml_win_prob":0.8189,"pred_mfe_pct":7.4304,"pred_return_pct":2.8388},"next_step":{"copy_text":"BUY AAPL market, day order; plan exit ~2026-07-19 (24d seasonal hold).","framing":"TradeWave gives the edge and the timing; you place the trade at your own broker.","headline":"To act on this, here is a ready-to-place ticket:","order_ticket":{"note":"Seasonal hold ~24 calendar days. Size to your own risk.","side":"BUY","suggested_entry_date":"2026-06-25","suggested_exit_date":"2026-07-19","symbol":"AAPL","time_in_force":"DAY","type":"MARKET"},"set_reminder":{"fire_on":"2026-06-24","message":"AAPL seasonal window opens tomorrow.","type":"seasonal_entry"}},"rank":1,"receipts":{"as_of":"2026-07-21","avg_return_pct":6.05,"best_year":{"return_pct":18.7,"year":"2026"},"curve_summary":{"change_pts":12.8,"peak_day":20,"shape":"strengthens into the exit; seasonal index rising +13 pts over the hold","trend":"rising","trough_day":0},"historical_win_rate":1.0,"losses":0,"median_return_pct":6.01,"per_year":[{"result":"win","return_pct":8.51,"year":"2016"},{"result":"win","return_pct":3.57,"year":"2017"},{"result":"win","return_pct":5.33,"year":"2018"},{"result":"win","return_pct":3.59,"year":"2019"},{"result":"win","return_pct":7.84,"year":"2020"},{"result":"win","return_pct":7.02,"year":"2021"},{"result":"win","return_pct":6.59,"year":"2022"},{"result":"win","return_pct":5.31,"year":"2023"},{"result":"win","return_pct":7.29,"year":"2024"},{"result":"win","return_pct":5.42,"year":"2025"},{"result":"win","return_pct":18.7,"year":"2026"}],"source":"TradeWave seasonal model, 10y lookback","wins":11,"worst_year":{"return_pct":3.57,"year":"2017"},"years_tested":11},"setup":{"entry_date":"2026-06-25","entry_window":"2026-06-22 to 2026-06-28","exit_date":"2026-07-19","hold_days":24,"timing":{"days_to_entry":-26,"status":"window has passed for this cycle"}},"stats":{"annualized_return_pct":7.13,"avg_return_pct":6.05,"cumulative_return_pct":113.0,"historical_win_rate":1.0,"median_return_pct":6.01,"sharpe_ratio":3.42,"sharpe_ratio_mfe":1.8,"std_dev_pct":4.14,"years":"10"},"symbol":"AAPL","tier_notes":"ML score shown.","verdict":"Strong, consistent seasonal long. Seasonal shape: strengthens into the exit; seasonal index rising +13 pts over the hold.","wave_viewer":{"label":"Open and stress-test this exact pattern in TradeWave","opens":"Wave Viewer","pattern":{"entry_date":"2026-06-25","hold_days":24,"market_id":"2","symbol":"AAPL","years":"10"},"url":"https://tradewave.ai/app/?o=MnxBQVBMfDIwMjYtMDYtMjV8MjR8MTA&view=evidence","value":"Inspect individual years, change the lookback or PE cycle, adjust the window, compare patterns, and save or share the setup."}},"disclaimer":"Educational seasonal pattern + ML research, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not indicative of future results.","other_setups":[{"avg_return_pct":6.5,"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-06-24","historical_win_rate":1.0,"hold_days":28,"median_return_pct":6.34,"sharpe_ratio":2.95,"symbol":"AAPL","years":"10"},{"avg_return_pct":5.11,"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-06-23","historical_win_rate":1.0,"hold_days":25,"median_return_pct":4.66,"sharpe_ratio":2.75,"symbol":"AAPL","years":"10"},{"avg_return_pct":5.78,"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-06-26","historical_win_rate":1.0,"hold_days":27,"median_return_pct":5.27,"sharpe_ratio":2.74,"symbol":"AAPL","years":"10"},{"avg_return_pct":5.98,"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-06-27","historical_win_rate":1.0,"hold_days":25,"median_return_pct":6.22,"sharpe_ratio":2.59,"symbol":"AAPL","years":"10"}],"view":"full"}