{"as_of":"2026-10-19","card":{"alignment":{"note":"Seasonal edge only - no ML score on this setup to cross-check.","verdict":"seasonal_only"},"benchmark":{"basis":"Seasonal window vs holding the symbol Jan 1 to Jan 1, same completed years; cumulative compounds each year's return.","beats_buy_hold":true,"buy_hold_avg_pct":35.02,"buy_hold_cumulative_pct":921.8,"first_year":"2016","last_year":"2024","window_avg_pct":32.18,"window_cumulative_pct":1025.81,"years_compared":9,"years_window_beat_buy_hold":3},"bias":"bullish","direction":"long","disclaimer":"Educational seasonal pattern + ML research, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not indicative of future results.","edge_basis":"win_rate 1.00 x sharpe 1.4 x 9y history","edge_score":80,"extend_research":{"blind_to":["fundamentals","valuation","news","catalysts","macro/rates","analyst views","upcoming earnings","live price"],"loop_back":"If your findings change the picture, call analyze_symbol again with a tighter window, compare_opportunities to rank peers, or get_pick_track_record for the live forward-tested record.","suggested_checks":["Does an earnings report fall inside the 2026-11-02 to 2027-11-01 window? TradeWave does not track earnings - check your own calendar.","Any scheduled catalyst (product, FDA, guidance, macro print) during the hold?","Recent news or price action that would invalidate a long bias on AAPL?","Is the sector / macro backdrop consistent with a long here?","What do current fundamentals or valuation say versus this purely seasonal read?"],"synthesis_rule":"Keep explicit which facts are TradeWave's (this card) versus your own research. Do NOT invent a catalyst to justify the seasonal edge; if there is none, the edge stands on the statistics alone.","tradewave_provides":"A seasonal + 62-feature-ML statistical edge and the timing for AAPL (long)."},"headline":"AAPL long - enter ~Nov 2, hold 365d. Won 9/9 years, avg +32.2%, Sharpe 1.4.","market":{"id":"2","name":"S&P 500 STOCKS"},"ml":null,"next_step":{"copy_text":"BUY AAPL market, day order; plan exit ~2027-11-01 (365d seasonal hold).","framing":"TradeWave gives the edge and the timing; you place the trade at your own broker.","headline":"To act on this, here is a ready-to-place ticket:","order_ticket":{"note":"Seasonal hold ~365 calendar days. Size to your own risk.","side":"BUY","suggested_entry_date":"2026-11-02","suggested_exit_date":"2027-11-01","symbol":"AAPL","time_in_force":"DAY","type":"MARKET"},"set_reminder":{"fire_on":"2026-11-01","message":"AAPL seasonal window opens tomorrow.","type":"seasonal_entry"}},"rank":1,"receipts":{"as_of":"2026-10-19","avg_return_pct":32.18,"best_year":{"return_pct":70.64,"year":"2019"},"curve_summary":{"change_pts":56.0,"peak_day":360,"shape":"strengthens into the exit; seasonal index rising +56 pts over the hold","trend":"rising","trough_day":1},"historical_win_rate":1.0,"losses":0,"median_return_pct":26.18,"per_year":[{"result":"win","return_pct":52.19,"year":"2016"},{"result":"win","return_pct":34.19,"year":"2017"},{"result":"win","return_pct":25.21,"year":"2018"},{"result":"win","return_pct":70.64,"year":"2019"},{"result":"win","return_pct":37.83,"year":"2020"},{"result":"win","return_pct":0.98,"year":"2021"},{"result":"win","return_pct":20.67,"year":"2022"},{"result":"win","return_pct":26.18,"year":"2023"},{"result":"win","return_pct":21.75,"year":"2024"}],"source":"TradeWave seasonal model, 10y lookback","wins":9,"worst_year":{"return_pct":0.98,"year":"2021"},"years_tested":9},"setup":{"entry_date":"2026-11-02","entry_window":"2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05","exit_date":"2027-11-01","hold_days":365,"timing":{"days_to_entry":14,"status":"window opens in 14 days"}},"stats":{"annualized_return_pct":30.87,"avg_return_pct":32.18,"cumulative_return_pct":1025.81,"historical_win_rate":1.0,"median_return_pct":26.18,"sharpe_ratio":1.41,"sharpe_ratio_mfe":1.41,"std_dev_pct":20.05,"years":"10","years_tested":9},"symbol":"AAPL","tier_notes":"ML score is currently unavailable for this setup. No ML allowance was charged for an undelivered score.","timing_mode":"next","verdict":"Strong, consistent seasonal long. Seasonal shape: strengthens into the exit; seasonal index rising +56 pts over the hold.","wave_viewer":{"label":"Open and stress-test this exact pattern in TradeWave","opens":"Wave Viewer","pattern":{"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-11-02","hold_days":365,"market_id":"2","symbol":"AAPL","years":"10"},"url":"https://tradewave.ai/app/?o=MnxBQVBMfDIwMjYtMTEtMDJ8MzY1fDEw&view=evidence&direction=long","value":"Inspect individual years, change the lookback or PE cycle, adjust the window, compare patterns, and save or share the setup."}},"disclaimer":"Educational seasonal pattern + ML research, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not indicative of future results.","other_setups":[{"avg_return_pct":30.68,"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-11-09","evidence_status":"verified","historical_win_rate":1.0,"hold_days":358,"market":"2","median_return_pct":28.26,"sharpe_ratio":1.4,"symbol":"AAPL","years":"10","years_tested":9},{"avg_return_pct":32.0,"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-11-04","evidence_status":"verified","historical_win_rate":1.0,"hold_days":363,"market":"2","median_return_pct":28.87,"sharpe_ratio":1.39,"symbol":"AAPL","years":"10","years_tested":9},{"avg_return_pct":31.06,"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-11-06","evidence_status":"verified","historical_win_rate":1.0,"hold_days":361,"market":"2","median_return_pct":26.09,"sharpe_ratio":1.36,"symbol":"AAPL","years":"10","years_tested":9},{"avg_return_pct":32.72,"direction":"long","entry_date":"2026-11-03","evidence_status":"verified","historical_win_rate":0.8889,"hold_days":364,"market":"2","median_return_pct":28.87,"sharpe_ratio":1.44,"symbol":"AAPL","years":"10","years_tested":9}],"view":"full"}